In recent years, NFL rushing offenses have changed. We’ve seen fewer bell-cow running backs and more committees featured. As a result, tailbacks may find it difficult to land lucrative deals on the free-agent market.
Furthermore, well-compensated running backs had underwhelming 2019 seasons. Sixteen ball-carriers eclipsed 1,000 yards. Only one of the top-five (annually) highest-paid backs, Ezekiel Elliott, belongs in that group. The other four, Todd Gurley II, Le’Veon Bell, David Johnson and Devonta Freeman, averaged fewer than 3.9 yards per carry.
If notable playmakers at the top of the wage market struggled to produce while averaging $8.25 million or more on their deals, teams may be hesitant to pay the next crop of free-agent tailbacks big money, especially with low-cost players clearing 1,000 rushing yards.
Nonetheless, free agency rewards production. Multiple players deserve pay raises, but we’re unlikely to see someone reset the market, topping Elliott’s six-year, $90 million contract. Still, veterans can make their cases to cash in.
Based on past production, let’s take a look at eight of the best impending free-agent running backs, unrestricted and restricted. We’ll match each player with a new team and provide a contract projection.
Barring an extension, Derrick Henry would go into free agency as the most coveted running back on the market when the new league year begins March 18. He earned the 2019 rushing title with 1,540 yards on 303 carries.
Quarterback Ryan Tannehill deserves credit for elevating the Tennessee Titans offense with his arm, but Henry averaged 149.1 yards per game between Week 10 and the AFC Championship Game.
As Henry saw an increase in rushing attempts through each of his four seasons, he upped his production. The Titans should feel comfortable handing the ball off to him 16-20 times per contest going forward.
Henry, arguably the best pure ball-carrier in the 2020 free-agent crop, comes up short in one aspect when compared to the top modern-day running backs. He doesn’t provide much in the passing game. The 26-year-old veteran had fewer than 19 catches in each of his campaigns.
The Titans can use Henry’s low reception numbers as a reason not to pay him $52-plus million like Elliott, Gurley and Bell, who all have multiple seasons with 50 or more receptions.
Because running back is one of the more replaceable positions, the Titans shouldn’t bend over backward to sign Henry. Nevertheless, he deserves a substantial raise.
Tennessee will pay Henry, but he won’t break the $50 million threshold in total contract value.
Prediction: Henry signs four-year, $48 million deal with the Titans.
Melvin Gordon III’s contract standoff with the Los Angeles Chargers started last offseason. He didn’t report to training camp and missed the first four weeks of the 2019 campaign. The organization won the financial tug-of-war, but the two-time Pro Bowler hopes to remain with the club, per Josh Alper of Pro Football Talk.
“Hopefully, I’m here,” Gordon said. “Hopefully, I don’t have to wait til [the new league year in] March to know where I’m gonna be playing.”
On the other hand, Gordon understands the Chargers’ plan may not involve him.
“When it comes to business, you have to take your emotions out of it,” he said. “It’s not about if you deserve to be here or not. I’ve talked to Tom [Telesco] plenty of times, he tells me ‘you deserve to get paid,’ but sometimes it just might not be the right situation.”
In Gordon’s absence, Austin Ekeler, who’s going to be a restricted free agent, flashed in the lead role. He’s every bit of a complete running back, logging 1,550 yards and 11 touchdowns from scrimmage during the 2019 campaign.
The Chargers are unlikely to keep both tailbacks on new deals. Don’t be surprised if they choose Ekeler, who’s two years younger and may be cheaper because of his restricted label.
Gordon’s demand for a new contract and his five-year history of taking on the featured position will probably lead him elsewhere. At 26 years old, he’s still in his prime and can produce with a high volume of touches.
The Miami Dolphins don’t have an established running back. None of their tailbacks has started more than eight games in a season. In 2019, Kalen Ballage led the team with 74 rushing attempts and recorded 135 yards and three touchdowns.
According to Spotrac, the Dolphins are projected to open the offseason with $93.7 million in cap space, the most in the NFL. Gordon’s contract wouldn’t put a huge dent in their financial resources, and the backfield would have a proven commodity to elevate the ground attack.
Prediction: Gordon signs four-year, $42 million deal with the Dolphins.
General manager Tom Telesco can allow Gordon to walk in free agency because of Ekeler’s breakout 2019 campaign. More importantly, Ekeler is more of a quick-twitch athlete. As NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah illustrated, the shifty running back can shake cornerbacks out of their cleats with crisp route running.
This past season, Ekeler finished 10th in receptions (92) and had an impressive 85.2 percent catch rate. He not only has one of the best sets of hands in the league, but he’s also a decent ball-carrier, averaging 4.8 yards per rushing attempt for his career.
If the Chargers let Gordon sign elsewhere, Ekeler would more than likely return for his fourth season in Los Angeles.
Keep in mind, Ekeler’s restricted free-agent tag allows the Chargers to match offers for him on the open market. L.A. could also sign him to an early extension, which would indicate the team is moving on from Gordon.
Spotrac estimates Ekeler would be worth $11.9 million on the open market compared to $11.7 million for Gordon.
While splitting hairs between two similar talents, the Chargers will choose to lock up Ekeler on a long-term deal and hope to see him build on his 2019 numbers in a full-time starting position.
